Using Real-Time Churn Prediction in a Mobile Game

In mobile games, retention is key to increase the Life Time Value of the players and reach financial success. Wouldn't it be great, when a player starts a session in your game, to be informed immediately that the player is at risk of churning? This way you could take some specific actions right away (in-game) to reduce this risk. 

This is called “Real-Time (in-game) Churn Prediction”. The key is that the prediction is made in real-time (when a player starts a session) so you can act immediately. And the prediction is made for each player, based on what the player already did in the game, and a Machine Learning model that learned from what players have previously done in the game. And the "churn" definition is that the player will not play the game in the next 7 days.

I sat with Oxana Fomina, Mobile Game and App Analytics Consultant, to talk about how studios can benefit from this new feature in their mobile games.

Dominique - What action can a game designer (studio) take for a player that has just started a session, and is at risk of churning?

Oxana - First of all, it would be nice to have some information about how this player has advanced in the game. Here are 2 important pieces of information:

• advancement in the life cycle, for instance: starter (played less than 7 days), active (played between 7 to 30 days), loyal (played more than 30 days). You can also use the last stage played, or the player level (if the game manages levels).
• paying or non-paying player (if the game offers In App Purchases).

Dominique - And usually studios keep track of this information in-game…

Oxana - Yes, but it would be nice if you could provide this information along with the churn prediction!

Dominique - Good idea, we’ll think about it !-) Now how can a studio use this information about the player to choose which action to take if the risk of churn is high ?

Oxana - It is important to adequately assess what is happening in the game:

- Think about how the action can affect the balance of the game

- How will the action affect the player's behavior in the game - will it promote return, retention and engagement in the game

- How the action will affect the monetization of the game.

It is important to understand that by creating a retention system for players with a high churn risk, you can not only improve retention, but also increase income. Especially if you learn how to keep paying players. When evaluating the risks associated with the issuance of soft and hard currency, you should take into account that the action will not be directed to all users in the game, but only to those who have a high risk of leaving. You can implement several methods and see which one works best for which type of players. In addition, you will be able to understand what engages users more and what actions do not lead to results. This will allow you to further optimize the system and minimize risks.

The studio can decide whether the action will have a low or high impact:

• a “low impact” action will have a lower impact on the player, but also on your economy balance. 
• A “high impact” action will have more impact on the player, but also could impact your economy balance. 

“High impact” actions are suitable for a “starter” (a player who has been in the game for less than 7 days). If we look at the data on retention in games of any genre, we can see that the main churn occurs in the first 7 days, after which the churn decreases. So it is crucial to have a strong impact here to minimize the overall churn, and the overall economy balance is less impacted.  In addition, the developer has already invested in UA and it is important to do everything that is possible to keep them in the game. The longer the player stays in the game, the higher the chance that he will make a purchase.

For a “loyal” player, a “low impact” action is suitable: this player already likes your game, and might just need a “little boost” to enhance the game interest.

Dominique - Yes that’s great advice. What about the timing of the action?

Oxana - The timing is important, and there is actually 2 aspects to consider:

• First, when do you take the action: right at the beginning of the session (when you get the “high” prediction), or during the session?
• Second, is your action immediate, or based on time? 

Regarding “when do you take the action”:

• for a “starter” player, you are not sure whether the player will play a lot in the session: better take the action right away… “Here is a nice booster!” 
• For a more engaged player, you can act during the session, for instance before playing a stage, or right after playing a stage (doubling a reward, easing the difficulty of the stages, displaying less interstitial ads…).

Regarding the timing in the action, don’t forget that the player has a “high” risk of churning (no more sessions in the next 7 days), so consider an action that will make this player come back again, for instance:

• a bonus that will last 3 days,
• a special item that will be unlocked in 24 hours,
• a special offer to buy soft money in the next 48 hours…
• Give a glimpse of what the player can get going further in the game: a stronger character, a new world, an advanced bonus…
• Set a local notification for the following day to collect a bonus for instance

Dominique - Yes I like these ideas: show the player why it is worth playing more sessions, give them a glimpse of what will be available.. Now what advice can you give to limit the impact on the game economy balance with these actions?

Oxana - When your action is to give something (soft money, hard money, an item, some resources, a specific booster, some energy, a life…) always check what is in the inventory of the player: giving something that the player already has will have a very limited effect. Always have a “backup” action not based on inventory.

Dominique - Oxana, you work on different types of games, can you give us some actions that come to your mind based on the games genre?

Oxana - It is important to understand that the methods listed for one game genre may apply to games in other genres. In this interview, we want to give as many different ideas as possible on how and with what you can keep users, so that the reader can find those that suit their games. Methods can be combined, and you can come up with original ones just for your game.

Slot games:

• Free spins
• Game currency
• Give the opportunity to try a slot that is available only to players who have reached a certain level in the game or to VIP players.
• Increase the chance of a bigger wins in the current session
• Give access to the Loyalty/VIP program for three days.

Match-3

• Additional moves (5 more moves to make it easier for the user to pass the stage)
• Gift with booster and/or soft currency
• Life (unlimited life for x minutes or y hours)
• Create a special mini-event that will last 3-5 days with a lucrative reward to engage users and motivate them to return to the game. It is important that the player can receive rewards in the event in several instances - this will motivate him to continue the game.

RPG

• Energy,
• Currency
• Resources for combat (potions, additional abilities),
• Hero Update Resources
• Mini task event
• Doubling clan points for the next session
• x2 experience points for the current game session
• x2 charging speed of additional abilities during the battle

Hypercasual

• Advert to another game of the Publisher (internal cross-promo)

Dominique - Thank you very much Oxana for all this great advice!