Assessing the end of the Green Bay Packers’ 2023 season is an exercise in weighing the enormity of the missed opportunity in the NFC playoffs against both the incredible accomplishments of a team in the first year of the Jordan Love era and the undeniable potential of team full of young and exciting talent.
The Packers will feel like they should be playing in the Super Bowl in a few weeks. Instead, they’ll go into 2024 with legitimate expectations of being a top contender in the NFC from the jump.
Meeting expectations requires improvement. Across the board. Brian Gutekunst and Matt LaFleur must find ways of getting better — both internally via player progression and externally via player acquistion — to make the leap. Knowing the task ahead helps understand the process.
Where are the Packers at in terms of personnel and the salary cap entering the offseason?
To help evaluate the roster, we went position-by-position, highlighting who is under contract, who is a free agent, early thoughts on each position and a unique salary cap perspective from Ken Ingalls, a CPA who studies the salary cap.
Here are Ken’s initial thoughts on the cap and the Packers’ offseason:
“The Packers enter the 2024 offseason in better overall financial shape than what we saw last year at this time heading into their 2023 rebuilding season. However, despite Aaron Rodgers’ contract being fully off their books and a talented roster full of young and cheap players, this team is currently $10.5 million over the 2024 cap and needs to shave about $30 million off their 2024 cap costs to be ready for the regular season. This $30 million only covers their upcoming draft class, practice squad, potential incentives, and having a small in-season fund – no extensions or free agents. To sign talent to this team outside of the draft, the Packers need to create even more cap savings than the $30 million baseline to make these moves fit. Oh yeah, and their new quarterback is about to become one of the highest paid players in the league – but more on that later!
The Packers have 17 pending free agents this offseason but compared to past years have significantly less starters about to leave. In 2023, the Packers had eight starters leave in free agency — which led to them being the youngest team in the league last season (not including Rodgers traded to the Jets). That is not the case in 2024. I don’t consider any of their pending free agents to be “must-sign” guys, rather it is a class of mostly role player types who would be nice to have back on the cheap but won’t be too difficult to replace if they end up elsewhere in 2024.
The 2024 season will be a crossroads type of year as the Packers have a bit more freedom over how to strategically build their roster. The Packers’ 2021 and 2022 all-in cap approach with Rodgers meant they were more or less forced into restructuring almost every veteran contract possible, saying goodbye to multiple veteran starters, and signing the leftovers in free agency – all to get by with minimal cap room to spare over the past 3 seasons. Instead, 2024 now offers their first real chance in years to choose how they want to proceed. Perhaps they slow down their restructure spree, continue a steady build on top of their young core, and set the franchise up for financial stability not seen since the previous CBA? Or do they take advantage of their ahead-of-schedule talent rebuild (thanks to their great 2022 & 2023 draft classes), continue to max out their cap restructures, and make some waves in free agency for 2024? Either way, I’m excited for the future of the team and can’t wait to see how they navigate this offseason.”
On to the position-by-position reviews:
Quarterback
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Under contract (3): Jordan Love, Sean Clifford, Alex McGough
Free agents: None
Early thoughts: Love checked every box imaginable in Year 1. Next is signing on the dotted line of a mega contract extension. Clifford was terrific during his first preseason and will go into 2024 as the expected backup. The Packers could search for competition for McGough, who was on the practice squad as the No. 3 quarterback from start to finish in 2023.
Ken’s cap perspective
The Packers once again seem to have set themselves up for stability at the quarterback position, going seamlessly from Favre to Rodgers to Love. The risk of trading up in the first round to draft Jordan Love in a season of limited development opportunities due to rookie camps and OTAs being cancelled has worked out in the Packers’ favor. Last offseason the Packers were not ready to guarantee his fifth-year option salary for 2024 as they needed to see him actually play real life NFL football. Instead, they agreed to a bridge type contract to pump up his 2023 salary as a starter and extend into 2024 with loads of incentives. After earning $5 million of incentives, Love enters this season set to make $11 million cash on a $12.8 million cap hit, ninth highest on the team. While under contract, I don’t see a realistic world where Jordan Love plays football for $11 million in 2024. His agency would be wise to not let him step foot on a football field until he gets a solid multi-year extension making him a top paid quarterback in the league – likely in the $48-$52 million per year range. A new deal cannot be agreed to until May due to a waiting period rule in the CBA between extensions, but it’s coming. A new deal and structure would likely land his 2024 cap hit somewhere in the $15-$20 million range, so the Packers would need to create room elsewhere to fit the cap hit increase for Love. Sean Clifford will be back in the second year of his rookie contract. So is Alex McGough, who recently signed back with the team off their practice squad. Maybe the Packers dip their toes into the draft or free agency if there is a backup quarterback they really like, but overall, the position is Jordan Love’s for the foreseeable future.
Running back
(Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
Under contract (2): Aaron Jones, Ellis Merriweather
Free agents: A.J. Dillon (unrestricted), Patrick Taylor (restricted), Emanuel Wilson (exclusive rights)
Early thoughts: Big decisions are coming at running back. Will the Packers adjust Jones’ contract for the second straight year? Is there real interest in bringing back Dillon in a backup role? Jones turns 30 next December, and the future at the position — in both the top roles — is far from established. Regardless of Jones’ status for 2024, the Packers need to invest at running back. They likely need a back who can contribute in 2024 and potentially take over the top spot in 2025.
Ken’s cap perspective
Aaron Jones is entering the last year of his contract at a $17.6 million cap hit, fourth highest on the team. After his impressive run at the end of 2023, I keep being asked if there is a chance Jones won’t be back. Well, he will be a 30-year-old running back who missed a lot of time this season, has only ever had two fully available seasons in his career, plays around 55% of snaps, and is set to make $12 million next season – tied with Christian McCaffery and behind only Nick Chubb at $12.2 million. So, yeah, there is a chance the Packers will move on. Last season Jones took a $5 million cash pay cut to stay in Green Bay. If he sticks around one more year he will need to agree to another restructuring and/or pay cut to lower his cap hit by around $8 million. I tend to think it’s more likely than not he returns but would be shocked if they extended him beyond this season. AJ Dillon is entering unrestricted free agency, Patrick Taylor will be a restricted free agent who won’t get a tender from the Packers, and Emanuel Wilson will be back as an exclusive rights free agent on a minimum contract. Wilson is a lock for training camp while Dillon and Patrick both likely aren’t getting any offers from Green Bay before free agency, though I could see Dillon accepting a team friendly deal to stick around as his love of the state of Wisconsin, Green Bay, and Door County is no secret. Regardless of the decisions made with their existing players, I see the Packers looking to invest multiple draft picks into the running back position to set themselves up for the future.
Wide receiver
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Under contract (9): Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Samori Toure, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton, Malik Heath, Grant DuBose, Thyrick Pitts
Free agents: None
Early thoughts: The Packers’ method of identifying and drafting a certain type of wide receiver is so rock solid that it’ll likely be tempting to take another wide receiver come April, but the team is now so loaded with young, cheap and developing talent that the need is almost zero. Keeping this position well-stocked for Jordan Love should be a priority, but the Packers have everything they need in terms of speed, versatility, talent and potential.
Ken’s cap perspective
The Packers are locked and loaded at the position full of cheap and talented players on cheap rookie or minimum deals. Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton, and Malik Heath are all coming back. Grant DuBose and Thyrick Pitts both recently signed back with the team from the practice squad. While a GM should always be looking to add talent to every position on the roster, wide receiver is their absolute last need for their next two seasons. If there is a stud early in the draft that somehow falls to them, the Packers may pull the trigger, but I expect the Packers to more or less ignore this position during the offseason.
Tight end
Under contract (4): Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, Ben Sims, Henry Pearson (FB), Joel Wilson
Free agents: Josiah Deguara (unrestricted), Tyler Davis (unrestricted)
Early thoughts: Deguara hitting free agency may open up a need for a hybrid fullback/tight end type, but the Packers built a solid top three at tight end and it’s possible Pearson could slide into the Deguara role in 2024. Keep in mind, Deguara played fewer than 200 snaps in 2023 despite all the inexperience and injury issues at tight end. Competition for Sims as the No. 3 tight end and Pearson as the hybrid are the only “needs” at the position. It’s possible Davis — a highly regarded player in Green Bay — could return on a cheap deal after missing the entire 2023 season with a knee injury.
Ken’s cap perspective
See Wide Receiver section above! Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, and Ben Simms are all on their cheap rookie contracts. Henry Pearson is a TE/FB and is back on a minimum contract. He has a chance to stick around as replacement for Josiah Deguara, who is set to leave in free agency. Joel Wilson also returns from the practice squad. Tyler Davis was on injured reserve all season and is scheduled to be a free agent who probably doesn’t return. Perhaps the Packers are looking for a Marcedes Lewis type blocking monster and red zone matchup nightmare to join the ranks via the draft, but overall their depth at tight end is solid.
Offensive line
(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Under contract (9): David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers, Zach Tom, Rasheed Walker, Sean Rhyan, Royce Newman, Luke Tenuta, Kadeem Telfort
Free agents: Yosh Nijman (unrestricted), Jon Runyan Jr. (unrestricted), Caleb Jones (exclusive rights)
Early thoughts: The Packers may believe they have all five preferred starters along the offensive line under contract for 2024, but with veteran departures expected and likely unavoidable, Brian Gutekunst will need to bolster the position group at several spots. What happens with David Bakhtiari? Is competition needed at left tackle, center and right guard? Who will be the swing tackle? Almost every year, the Packers reinvest resources to ensure the long-term health of the offensive line, and 2024 should be no different.
Ken’s cap perspective
Elgton Jenkins enters as the seventh highest cap hit at $14.4 million with a $5.1 million roster bonus due in March – the Packers may restructure this deal to create $5-6 million or could let this one sit to slow their cap kicking. Josh Myers and Royce Newman both earned proven performance escalators entering the final years of their rookie contracts. The Packers almost certainly move on from Royce Newman to gain $2.8 million of space. Yosh Nijman will be an unrestricted free agent who likely can get a chance elsewhere but will leave behind $2.5 million as dead cap when his contract voids. Jon Runyan Jr. is set to be an unrestricted free agent and was in a rotation with Sean Rhyan at right guard. Runyan wants to stay in Green Bay, but the Packers may choose to go with their younger third-round pick as the full-time starter. Runyan would be a great swing interior lineman if willing to be a backup but could seek starter money elsewhere. Rhyan, Zach Tom, Rasheed Walker, and Luke Tenuta are on their cheap rookie contracts and are in good position to compete for three of the starting jobs and a swing tackle role on the line in 2024.
That leaves the ugly David Bakhtiari contract situation. He is set to earn $21.5 million cash in the final year of his contract, but his initial signing bonus and three straight years of cap restructuring have now piled up into 2024 creating a whopping $40 million cap hit – by far the largest on the roster, $12.5 million ahead of second place. Important to note: Bakhtiari has intentionally not allowed the Packers to use void years in his restructures the past three seasons in to have full leverage of his future in the final year of his deal as the Packers now cannot lower his 2024 cap hit (outside of cutting, trading, or retirement) without David’s cooperation. There is zero chance Bakhtiari will play in Green Bay on his current contract as written and the Packers have a big decision to make with their former All-Pro left tackle. No doubt, when healthy and available, Bakhtiari is still one of the best in the business, but of course his health and availability have been wildly unpredictable the past three years. If Bakhtiari himself doesn’t want to stay in Green Bay or doesn’t like the Packers’ offer he can just refuse a restructure and force the Packers to either risk paying him $21.5 million to play and stay healthy at a $40 million cap hit, be outright released for no compensation, or risk carrying his contract into 2024 in a complex trade landscape – none of these are great options. Let’s start with what cannot change – there is $19.1 million of dead cap which 100% will count on the 2024 Green Bay salary cap before Bakhtiari gets a penny of contract cash in 2024. This hit cannot move out of 2024 for any reason and is comprised of past seasons’ cap-kicking now coming due. It’s safe to predict that once all the team’s offseason moves are complete David Bakhtiari will still own the highest 2024 cap hit for the Packers – even if he is no longer on the roster. If the Packers want to keep Bakhtiari it would have to be at a significant pay cut and restructure from his current $21.5 million cash due, but how much is Bakhtiari willing to agree to play for, in Green Bay? If Bakhtiari is willing to take a deep ten-figure pay cut and add more into at-risk incentives and per-game bonuses, then maybe he returns for 2024. Technically an extension could happen, but I don’t see a world where the Packers commit any more money unless they are 5000% certain his medical issues are behind him. If the Packers release Bakhtiari before the start of the 2024 season in March, they would gain $20.9 million of cap savings from his contract as a starting point. If he does not pass a physical before getting released, the Packers would have to pay him at least $2.05 million of his 2024 salary, of which $1.23 million would count on the 2024 salary cap as injury protection benefit. There is a fringe legal case where Bakhtiari could file an injury grievance over his entire 2024 salary, but I won’t dive into that here. However, if Bakhtiari is on the Packers roster after the start of the 2024 league year and later released this grievance scenario becomes much more possible and poses a significant cap risk for the Packers. In other words, I strongly feel the Packers need decide on David Bakhtiari before March 13th and not allow his “as-is” contract to hit the books for 2024. The Packers could seek to trade Bakhtiari but comes with complications. The new team would have to clear him medically after his multiple 2023 knee surgeries and be willing to give up draft picks for his $21.5 million contract. Also, trades cannot happen until after March 13th so the Packers would have to carry his contract into the 2024 season which is risky (see above) all while being cap compliant with his $40 million deal still on the books. I doubt Bakhtiari would agree to lower his salary to aid a trade unless he controls where he will go. The worst case would be agreeing to a trade, having the new team fail his medicals, then landing back with the Packers scrambling for a way forward. I tend to believe the Packers can no longer afford to take a “wait and see” approach and a hard decision needs to be made here before March 13th resulting in an outright release.
Rasheed Walker has developed into a solid replacement and grades out among the top-tier tackles in the NFL at around a $1 million cap hit for 2024. With Bakhtiari, Runyan, Newman, and Nijman potentially on their way out of Green Bay, the Packers once again find themselves needing reinforcements along the offensive trenches. I expect offensive line to be a sneaky priority need for the 2024 Packers and see them investing multiple draft picks and maybe even target some free agents to reinforce Jenkins and a bunch of rookie contracts on the offensive line.
Defensive line
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Under contract (6): Kenny Clark, TJ Slaton, Devonte Wyatt, Colby Wooden, Karl Brooks, Jonathan Ford
Free agents: None
Early thoughts: For the first time in ages, the defensive line looks strong entering the offseason. The Packers have two established veterans, a recent first-round pick coming off a breakout season, and two soon-to-be second-year players coming off encouraging rookie seasons. Do the Packers need improvement up front? Certainly, but it’s more likely to come internally than from a major acquisition in 2024. Unless the next defensive coordinator wants a big change along the defensive line, this position group could be mostly unchanged next season.
Ken’s cap perspective
Kenny Clark has the second highest cap hit on the team at $27.5 million and enters 2024 on the final year of his second contract in Green Bay. The Packers may give a rare third non-quarterback contract to extend Clark and significantly reduce his salary cap hit. If not, they can restructure his deal to gain $10.8-11.5 million of cap space. TJ Slaton earned a proven performance raise but I doubt they restructure – maybe he gets an extension later in the season. Devonte Wyatt, Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks are back on their cheap rookie deals and Jonathan Ford is back from the practice squad. I can see the Packers adding a piece of two, especially if they pass on the Clark extension or if the new defensive coordinator wants to bring in specific skill sets along the line.
Outside linebacker/edge rusher
Green Bay Packers linebacker Preston Smith (91) celebrates sacking Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) during their football game Sunday, December 3, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis.
Under contract (10): Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Lukas Van Ness, Kingsley Enagbare, Brenton Cox Jr., Keshawn Banks, Arron Mosby, Kenneth Odumegwu, Deslin Alexandre, Deandre Johnson
Free agents: None
Early thoughts: Smith had another productive season and is beloved in the locker room, and Enagbare might miss a big chunk of the 2024 season after suffering a knee injury in Dallas — making it easy to envision Smith returning with Van Ness continuing to develop as the top backup. Enagbare’s injury and Smith’s age will likely require the Packers to make an addition here, not only for depth now but for long-term stability at a premier position.
Ken’s cap perspective
The Packers outside linebackers hold the fifth and sixth highest contracts on the roster for 2024 in Preston Smith and Rashan Gary, respectively. Gary has a $15.9 million cap hit in the second year of his new contract and the Packers could restructure his contract before a $6.2 million cash bonus is paid in March to free up around $5 million of cap space. Smith is a wild card at 32 years old and a $16.5 million cap hit but has been a reliable and consistent pass rusher for the Packers. He has only missed one game in his 9-year NFL career. He has a $5.4 million roster bonus due in March and the Packers will decide his fate before this is paid. They can release or trade him to create $2.5 million. I think they hold onto Smith for at least one more season and would be a bit surprised if they move on unless they think Lukas Van Ness is ready to start. Restructuring Smith would give $7.5-8 million of cap space but this is a contract where they may choose to sit tight and slow their restructuring spree. Kingsley Enagbare was injured late in the 2023 season and could miss some time. Brenton Cox Jr. was a preferred healthy scratch during most games in his rookie season. Behind them are a bunch of practice squad and street free agents on minimum deals. You can never have enough pass rushers and expect the Packers to inject some more talent into the position to prepare for an eventual post-Smith world and improve their depth. The new defensive coordinator could impact the decision-making here as well.
Inside linebacker
(Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Under contract (4): De’Vondre Campbell, Quay Walker, Isaiah McDuffie, Christian Young
Free agents: Eric Wilson (unrestricted), Kristian Welch (unrestricted)
Early thoughts: An injury-plagued season for Campbell and the emergence of McDuffie as a capable second linebacker might make Campbell expendable this offseason. If Campbell exits, the Packers will likely need to make an addition. Wilson and Welch were key special teamers, and the Packers need at least one to return.
Ken’s cap perspective
De’Vondre Campbell is the eighth highest contract at $14.2 million while set to earn $10.75 million cash. Campbell has three real years left on his contract signed in 2022 but is likely on his way out in Green Bay. Campbell will be 31 years old in July and doesn’t look close to the same player who earned a 5-year extension after his 2021 All-Pro season. A pre-June cut would create $2.6 million, but if the Packers thread the needle between March 13th when the 2024 season begins and March 15th when his $2.9 million roster bonus is due, they can designate Campbell as a post June 1 release and create $10.6 million total cap savings in June. They would have to carry some of his contract through June 1 but then the Packers would net overall net cash and cap gains to better invest elsewhere. This leaves Quay Walker and Isaiah Mcduffie coming back on rookie deals and Christian Young as a linebacker/safety hybrid on the roster. Expect the Packers to add several linebackers this offseason.
Cornerback
(Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
Under contract (5): Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes, Carrington Valentine, Zyon Gilbert, Anthony Johnson
Free agents: Keisean Nixon (unrestricted), Corey Ballentine (unrestricted), Robert Rochell (restricted)
Early thoughts: What was a position of strength entering 2023 will go into 2024 with a number of question marks. Can the Packers count on Stokes in any capacity? Do they want to bring back Nixon to play in the slot? Is Valentine a player they think can start long term? It’s possible the Packers will need to add at least two players — one with potential outside, and one in the slot — via free agency and the draft.
Ken’s cap perspective
Last year at this time, cornerback was looking solid, but now needs a bit of work. Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes combined to play in only 10 games in 2023 and made it out healthy out of even fewer. Valentine is their only other signed player with meaningful playtime. Alexander’s highest paid corner contract is third highest on the Packers at $24 million. Unless the relationship goes full nuclear you can expect Jaire back in Green Bay in 2024. The Packers have no interest in eating $27.5 million dead cap to trade him despite the late 2023 season team-imposed suspension. His contract can be restructured before paying out his $8 million roster bonus to save $10-11 million. Stokes is in the last year of his rookie first-round contract and the Packers will decline his $11+ million guaranteed fifth-year option for 2025. Valentine is on a cheap seventh round contract. Rasul Douglas was traded at the deadline last year and will hit the Packers’ 2024 cap with $5.1 million despite playing in Buffalo. Keisean Nixon is an unrestricted free agent who landed a second consecutive All-Pro award for his kick returning ability. Nixon earned $750,000 of defensive play-time incentives which will hit the 2024 cap on top of his $1.5 million dead cap when his contract voids, however, the Packers can slow the void hit by $1.1 million if they extend Nixon before the contract voids. Nixon is probably their top free agent and still is a toss-up if they want to prioritize his return. Corey Ballentine is set for free agency who could return for depth. Robert Rochell was mostly a special teamer who won’t get a tender as a restricted free agent. The new defensive coordinator will likely determine if he wants any of their free agents to return for his defense. Either way, their expected starters have trouble staying on the field and their meaningful depth is non-existent. Expect multiple additions and perhaps even a “splash” free agent here or at safety.
Safety
Green Bay Packers safety Anthony Johnson Jr. (36) is swarmed by teammates after making a special teams tackle against Minnesota Vikings running back Kene Nwangwu (26) during their football game Sunday, December 31, 2023, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Under contract (4): Anthony Johnson Jr., Benny Sapp III, Zayne Anderson, Tyler Coyle
Free agents: Darnell Savage (unrestricted), Rudy Ford (unrestricted), Jonathan Owens (unrestricted)
Early thoughts: What a mess. This position needs a complete renovation, but at least the expiring contracts of Savage, Ford and Owens opens the door to the Packers making wholesale changes. The guess here is the Packers will bring back one of the veterans and then restock the position via the draft, likely with at least one player capable of starting right away.
Ken’s cap perspective
Much like cornerback, the Packers can add safety to their list of top priorities. Anthony Johnson Jr. and Benny Sapp III are the incumbent starters as a seventh-round draft pick and undrafted free agent, respectively. While each got some playing time, neither were preferred starters in 2023 on a suspect depth chart. Zayne Anderson is under contract but is most famous for Packers fans wondering if he was a real person. Darnell Savage heads to free agency after playing out his fifth-year option. He leaves behind a $5.5 million dead cap hit when his contract expires. Maybe the Packers want him to return, it will depend on their new coordinator’s opinion of his skillset. My guess is Savage will try to get a decent deal outside of Green Bay that the Packers won’t match. Rudy Ford and Jonathan Owens were two of the Packers’ top free agent signings last offseason and head to free agency once again. I can see either coming back for a minimum type of deal to battle for a depth spot in training camp. The Packers need starting level talent here once again. They patched holes for 2023 but it’s time for some real investment in the position. I see the Packers drafting at least two secondary players by the end of Day 2 and probably even more in the later rounds. If the Packers spend meaningfully in free agency, it makes the most sense to boost their secondary.
Special teams
While Green Bay Packers special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia looks on, Green Bay Packers place kicker Anders Carlson and punter Daniel Whelan (19) warm up before their game against the New Orleans Saints Sunday, September 24, 2023 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis.
Under contract (3): Anders Carlson, Matt Orzech, Jack Podlesny
Free agents: Daniel Whelan (exclusive rights)
Early thoughts: The Packers will return Whelan, who flashed ability in his first season as the punter, but competitions at kicker and long snapper should be expected. This team badly needs more consistency from the specialist positions in 2024, especially if the Packers emerge as legitimate contenders.
Ken’s cap perspective
Special teams won’t move the cap needle much in 2024 regardless of who stays or goes. Lots of conversation around kicker Anders Carlson, but I think he will be given every opportunity to keep his job up through training camp while cycling competition legs (see: Jack Podlesny) in behind him to challenge. That is unless he completely falls off then they can replace him cheaply. Daniel Whelan will be back as an exclusive rights free agent. Matt Orzech was their top 2023 free agent signing and seems likely to return.
