LUP Student Papers

Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment for Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

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Abstract

The phenomenon of global warming has become a fact, however; the uncertainty is about the magnitude and acceleration of its manifestations. Global mean sea level rise is one of the results induced by global warming and is happening with an undetectable accelerated pace. The world international organizations and governments are devoting efforts and initiatives in a trial to manage global warming induced impacts. The efforts include: assessment for the potential impacts of risks, mitigation of the risks by trying to decrease its magnitude or acceleration through developing and adhering to environmental policies, and finally adapting our environment to increase its resilience to such risks. On the other hand, governments cannot act solely to... (More)

The phenomenon of global warming has become a fact, however; the uncertainty is about the magnitude and acceleration of its manifestations. Global mean sea level rise is one of the results induced by global warming and is happening with an undetectable accelerated pace. The world international organizations and governments are devoting efforts and initiatives in a trial to manage global warming induced impacts. The efforts include: assessment for the potential impacts of risks, mitigation of the risks by trying to decrease its magnitude or acceleration through developing and adhering to environmental policies, and finally adapting our environment to increase its resilience to such risks. On the other hand, governments cannot act solely to mitigate the risks of global mean sea level rise or global warming; only international as well local collaborated efforts can trigger an effective plan to manage such risks.
The goal of this project was to introduce a comprehensive yet simple practice on how the Geographic Information Systems methods and up-to-date technology can be utilized in assessing the potential impacts of sea level rise. This was translated into three main objectives to fulfill: (i) Assess which areas are vulnerable to sea level rise using the best available methods; (ii) Simplify the results of assessments in the form of charts and statistics to enable stakeholders to have a quick insight on the selected sea level rise scenario potential impacts; (iii) Publish the vulnerability assessment results on a sharable platform where multiple organizations/entities can have access.
The first objective was accomplished through developing a configurable geo-processing model that aims to extract the potentially inundated areas using a bathtub-enhanced method with hydrological connectivity evaluation. The model runs on the best free elevation dataset available for the area (SRTM 1arc second - 30 meters), selected possible sea level rise scenarios (1 meter, 2 and 3 meters) and United Arab Emirates boundary. The results were overlaid with multiple datasets representing different domain categories like natural environment (land-cover, natural habitats, protected areas), built up environment (land-use, industrial areas, points of interest), administrative (municipalities, districts, population), transportation and utilities (roads, transportation facilities and utilities). The final output is multiple datasets for each sea level rise scenario representing each domain category vulnerable areas associated with the possible inundation depth in meters.
The second and third objectives were achieved through building a web application summarizing the most vulnerable areas statistics and thus reflecting species/categories at higher risk. The web application is published on an organization ArcGIS Online account, which can be accessed by other permitted organizations/entities. Through this technological approach stakeholders at different entities can have a brief insight on the vulnerability assessment results, to enable them to prioritize the areas at higher risks and develop an effective plan to save the city resources and increase the natural/built environment resilience to sea level rise risk. (Less)

Popular Abstract

The phenomenon of global warming has become a fact, however; the uncertainty is about the magnitude and acceleration of its manifestations. The Global Mean Sea level (GMSL) is one of the results induced by global warming and is happening with an undetectable accelerated pace due to the two factors induced by global warming; (1) thermal expansion of oceans water, and (2) melting glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. International organizations have led global initiatives to engage governments in the fight against global climate change. On the other hand, many countries have founded dedicated local councils or authorities that aim to conduct studies and lead scientific research in fields related to global climate change. The study of climate... (More)

The phenomenon of global warming has become a fact, however; the uncertainty is about the magnitude and acceleration of its manifestations. The Global Mean Sea level (GMSL) is one of the results induced by global warming and is happening with an undetectable accelerated pace due to the two factors induced by global warming; (1) thermal expansion of oceans water, and (2) melting glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. International organizations have led global initiatives to engage governments in the fight against global climate change. On the other hand, many countries have founded dedicated local councils or authorities that aim to conduct studies and lead scientific research in fields related to global climate change. The study of climate change in terms of impact assessment, risk mitigation and adaption had become an imperative for all developed countries.
This project has aimed to introduce a comprehensive practical methodology for the assessment of cities vulnerability to potential sea level rise using Geographic Information Systems methods and up-to-date technology. Hence, the methodology took into consideration the volatility of forecasted sea level rise values by using configurable geoprocessing models which allows the data analyst to enter the forecasted sea level rise to simulate the potentially inundated areas. Another aspect that was addressed is the connectivity to sea water and excluding areas that are low lying yet surrounded by a higher surfaces that isolate those low lying areas from the sea water. The methodology has also incorporated the Government Information Sharing concepts, which is an essential qualification for one-stop networked government through publishing the assessment results as a web-based application.
The study area was Abu Dhabi Emirate wide, including its 3 municipalities: Abu Dhabi Municipality, Al Dhafra Region Municipality and Al Ain Municipality. The output of the project included (1) A geoprocessing model that extracts Potentially Inundated Areas (PIAs) for a selected sea level rise scenario and identifies natural environment features (land-cover, natural habitats, protected areas), built up environment features (land-use, industrial areas, points of interest), administrative (municipalities, districts, population), transportation and utilities (roads, transportation facilities and utilities) that are subject to sea level rise risk, (2) A web-based application on ArcGIS Online platform that summarizes the PIAs and share results in the form of dashboards charts and graphs on a sharable platform where multiple organizations/entities can have a quick insight on the selected sea level rise potential impacts, and (3) Maps, Data layers and tables for PIAs Results and Statistics to be used for further analysis by data analysts.
The outputs can be utilized independently or combined to assess the vulnerability of a certain area or city to sea level rise. Through this approach stakeholders at different entities can have a brief insight on the vulnerability assessment results, to enable them to prioritize the areas at higher risks and develop an effective plan to save the city resources and increase the natural and built-up environment resilience to sea level rise risk.
Moreover, engaging different authorities in the vulnerability assessment exercise can help in getting higher quality and more updated data into the exercise. And thus, the results would be more accurate and help in providing a credible view on the potential impacts of sea level rise and, visualize critical vulnerabilities. Eventually this project represents an example of sea level rise disaster preparedness practices that aims to reduce the risk impacts by increasing the resilience of potentially impacted elements prior to the disaster occurrence. (Less)