Three things on my mind as the Bills prepare to, perhaps, play for their season in game 272…

Saying There’s Achane

The Bills are well aware of Job 1 when it comes to handling the Dolphins offense: containing Tyreek Hill. Buffalo has been fairly good at that in regular season games. In six contests, Hill is yet to reach 70 yards receiving and has scored only once. After Hill, the other usual Miami headaches are banged up. Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are both questionable to play Sunday night.

I think that makes De’Von Achane the X-factor that concerns Buffalo the most. He has trouble staying on the field, but when that happens, Achane has proven nearly as dangerous with the ball as Hill with elite speed and an underrated ability to break tackles. He was the only Dolphin who had a good game when Buffalo demolished Miami back in October (101 yards rushing and two touchdowns on only EIGHT carries).

I don’t think Miami wins without a big game on offense from someone not named Tyreek Hill. Since Mostert and Waddle are fighting to even answer the bell, Achane is the guy. While the Bills are doing their customary good work on Hill, they need an answer for Achane as well.

What Were They Made For?

I’m very interested about the want-to factor for Miami in this game. Unlike the Bills, they have already clinched a playoff spot. They’ve had players dropping left and right over the last month or so. Four starters went on injured reserve since the start of December (they might get linebacker Jerome Baker back this week) on top of the Waddle/Mostert/Hill injuries (Hill has been playing through an ankle issue) and the foot injury that will keep corner Xavien Howard out.

The Dolphins want to win a division title and have a couple home playoff games same as the Bills. However, Miami might need a week off more than a win. The win might not even be worth that much. If only one of the Steelers and Jaguars win, Miami’s reward for for beating Buffalo at home Sunday night… would be to play Buffalo at home again the very next weekend.

Mike McDaniel is going to have his team ready for kickoff. My question is how much the Dolphins stay in the fight if things start to go south. They have a safety net. The Bills might not. I don’t see Miami scratching and clawing for a victory. In the NFL, the more desperate team is often the better one.

Dolphin Destroyer

Josh Allen’s numbers against the Dolphins remain LOL ridiculous. In 11 regular season games, he’s accounted for 36 total touchdowns against just five interceptions. Two of his four career 400-yard passing games are against Miami. He’s won AFC Offensive Player of the Week after a Dolphins game five times! The 9-2 record might be the least impressive part.

Over the last couple games, Allen and the passing offense have been a touch sluggish. Despite 100 yards both weeks on the ground and solid to very good defensive performances, Buffalo has needed a battle to escape a pair of last-place teams with wins.

This is the game where Allen needs to earn that quarter of a billion-dollar contract. The Dolphins are missing their two high-level elite rushers and a corner. Bury them. With what the run game and defense have been doing lately, another monster Player of the Week-level game from Allen should make this contest a breeze.

Betting Things

The tilt continues. Stefon Diggs came within two yards of a rushing touchdown, but that’s as close as my anytime TD bet got last week. Four losses in a row has me back to .500 at 8-8, but still 1.6 units to the good.

Not gonna bother with much thinking for this bet. I hit on a Hill under receiving yards play back in week four and I’ll stay with it for this week. As mentioned earlier, Hill has not reached 70 yards in any regular season game against the Bills. His line for this week is a stunning 94.5 yards (“stunning” considering the Bills’ history against him, but not for what Hill has done otherwise). I have plenty of confidence in Sean McDermott to keep keeping Hill bottled up, even if my confidence in wagering on Bills games is waning quickly.

The Pick

The Diggs question has dominated Bills talk this week and I didn’t include it as a Thing because I don’t think Diggs will directly influence whether Buffalo wins or loses this game. He could. A rebound 150-yard, 2-TD performance would not be a stunner. The Bills have also won five of six with Diggs as mostly a non-factor. I don’t think the Bills win or make a Super Bowl without reigniting their top wideout, but they can handle a beaten-up Dolphins team as is.

There are so many other factors pointing to Buffalo in this game. They’re the hotter team. They’re the healthier team. They have the better quarterback. They’re more likely to be the more desperate team. Even the homefield advantage won’t matter much for Miami. BillsMafia is always strong at Hard Rock Stadium and temperatures will remain comfortably in the 70s.

I do expect Buffalo to need a win to make the playoffs. I’ll pick both the Steelers and Jags to win their games and close Buffalo’s back door to a wild card spot. It won’t be necessary, but it should provide an added bit of motivation even if it also adds to the heart palpitations for Bills fans Sunday night. This would be new territory for the McDermott/Allen era. They have never taken the field for a regular season finale needing a win to make the postseason.

It’s just really hard to build a logical case for a Buffalo loss. Obviously, a bunch of turnovers could make things sour real quick. Beyond that, this should be Buffalo’s game and I won’t waste your time digging further through the minutiae of why. I don’t think it’ll be easy because most Bills wins lately have not been easy, but I do think there will be playoffs in Buffalo-ville again this January. Give me the Bills 23-17.