The Munich Security Conference (MSC) took place from February 16 to 18, 2024, and was an important event that brought together world leaders, policymakers, and security experts to discuss the most pressing international security challenges. This annual gathering aims to provide a forum for high-level discussions on international security policy, with the primary objective of promoting dialogue and cooperation among nations to address global security challenges and prevent conflicts. The conference is attended by diplomats, military officials, and security experts who come together to exchange views and ideas on how to tackle international security issues effectively. The Munich Security Report is an annual publication associated with the conference. It provides an overview of key security issues, analyses global trends, and offers insights into the state of international security.
The Munich Security Conference, formerly known as "Wehrkundetagung" (Defence Policy Seminar), was established in 1963. It was created as a platform for transatlantic dialogue and addressing security challenges during the Cold War era. This annual event is held in Munich, Germany, and usually takes place in February. It lasts several days and includes various sessions, panels, and discussions. The Munich Security Conference covers a wide range of topics related to global security, such as geopolitical tensions, nuclear disarmament, terrorism, cyber threats, and regional conflicts. The agenda is dynamic and responds to current and emerging security challenges.
The Munich Security Conference (MSC) is an important yearly event that brings together world leaders, policymakers, and experts to discuss pressing security issues. In 2024, China's participation and viewpoints in the conference were crucial, especially regarding critical geopolitical problems such as the Taiwan Strait tensions, the Israel-Palestine conflict, and the Ukraine-Russia war.
China on the Taiwan Issue
During a session called "Conversation with China" at the Munich Security Conference in 2024, Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed that Taiwan's return to the motherland has been a longstanding question since the Chinese civil war. He firmly believes that reunification between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is inevitable and serves the interests of all parties to maintain stability. The Chinese people are united in their desire to see Taiwan return to the motherland. The "Taiwan independence" forces on the island are the main obstacle to peace and stability in the region. Upholding the one-China principle requires supporting China's peaceful reunification while opposing "Taiwan independence" is necessary to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
The following are observations and necessary actions to consider regarding the Taiwan issues. China adheres to the One-China Policy, which asserts that there is only one China and that Taiwan is part of it. This policy is central to China's foreign policy and national identity. China emphasizes its historical and cultural ties with Taiwan, pointing to centuries of shared history and cultural heritage. China has called for the peaceful reunification with Taiwan China has claimed to use force to achieve its goal, raising concerns about potential consequences.
China on the Israel-Palestine Issue
China reaffirmed its commitment to a two-state solution for the Israel-Palestine conflict at the Munich Security Conference. The Chinese officials emphasized the need for an independent Palestinian state to be established with East Jerusalem as its capital, based on the pre-1967 borders. They called for an immediate end to violence and the resumption of negotiations to achieve a comprehensive and long-lasting peace in the region.
China has stressed the significance of maintaining international law, which includes the relevant UN resolutions. They are calling on the international community to constructively facilitate dialogue between the Israelis and Palestinians. Furthermore, China has reiterated its commitment to providing humanitarian aid to reduce the Palestinian people's suffering and support Gaza's reconstruction efforts.
China's position on the Israel-Palestine conflict remains consistent and its support for the two-state solution as the sole viable path to achieving enduring peace, aligns with the international community's stance. They also emphasized their concern for civilian protection and adherence to international law, calling for immediate action to prevent further harm and humanitarian crises. Additionally, they called for a more comprehensive international peace conference, indicating potential support for a greater international role in resolving the conflict. However, the limited information provided does not offer a deep understanding of their specific proposals or nuanced positions on contentious issues within the conflict. To assess the effectiveness of China's mediation efforts or potential role in resolving the conflict, a more comprehensive understanding of their actions beyond statements is necessary.
China on the Ukraine-Russia War
In the Ukraine-Russia war, China maintained a cautious approach at the Munich Security Conference. Chinese officials reiterated their longstanding position of respecting Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity while emphasizing the need for a peaceful resolution through dialogue and negotiation. China called for all parties involved to exercise restraint and avoid actions that could escalate tensions or undermine regional stability. While expressing concerns about the humanitarian situation and advocating for a diplomatic solution, China refrained from blaming either of the conflicting parties or taking sides in the conflict.
At the Sidelines of the Munich Security Conference
During the Munich Security Conference, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held several significant meetings that highlighted China's commitment to diplomacy and multilateralism. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed a range of important topics, such as strategic competition, climate change, and regional security. Both sides agreed to continue engaging in constructive dialogue and cooperation while resolving differences peacefully. During his meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed China's support for maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. He emphasized the significance of resolving the conflict through diplomatic channels. The two sides discussed potential opportunities for improving bilateral relations and cooperation in areas of mutual interest. During talks with Dr. S. Jaishankar, the Indian External Affairs Minister, Wang Yi discussed opportunities to strengthen China-India relations and address outstanding issues. Both sides emphasized the significance of maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. They also highlighted the need for increased cooperation on global challenges like climate change and pandemic response.
China's position on the Israel-Palestine conflict remains consistent and its support for the two-state solution as the sole viable path to achieving enduring peace, aligns with the international community's stance. They also emphasized their concern for civilian protection and adherence to international law, calling for immediate action to prevent further harm and humanitarian crises. Additionally, they called for a more comprehensive international peace conference, indicating potential support for a greater international role in resolving the conflict. However, the limited information provided does not offer a deep understanding of their specific proposals or nuanced positions on contentious issues within the conflict. To assess the effectiveness of China's mediation efforts or potential role in resolving the conflict, a more comprehensive understanding of their actions beyond statements is necessary.
Conclusion
The Munich Security Conference is a renowned and influential annual event that facilitates high-level discussions, diplomatic initiatives, and collaboration on critical issues affecting international security. Wang Yi also mentioned China's role in facilitating a political settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Ukraine crisis and mediating in the north Myanmar crisis. He stressed that China has responsibly managed disputes with neighbors in the South China Sea. China's participation and engagements at the Munich Security Conference in 2024 indicated that China sought to use the global forum to reiterate strongly its views about some glaring issues ravaging the world including the Ukraine War, Gaza crisis, its border dispute with India and the Taiwan issue.
China’s total debt-to-GDP ratio has increased rapidly through the years, standing at 280% of total GDP in 2023 (International Monetary Fund, 2023). According to the National Institute of Finance and Development, the total outstanding non-financial debt rose 13% from 2022 (NIFD, 2023). In China’s total debt, the non-financial corporate sector contributed the highest component. The issue of debt in the non-financial sector is the highest in the ferrous, non-ferrous metals, chemical and machinery industries. China’s debt situation was worsened by their general economy. Deflationary pressures made it difficult for local governments to repay their money, and business and consumer sentiments have been low recently. There are historic reasons for China’s debt. In short, indebtedness and excess production capacity in China are intrinsically linked to the binge investments from the government (IEF, 2014).
The debts of the central government are not too shocking; however the debt of the cities and provinces appear to be a herculean challenge. Both the explicit and hidden debts of local governments swelled during the pandemic years, coming to a head in 2023 (Xie et al, 2023). Explicit debt refers to debt from banks, while hidden debts of the local government refer to the borrowings of the local government without the official knowledge/sanction from the center. In 2023, the debts of the local governments exceeded 120% of their incomes in the previous year, and two-thirds of the local governments were in danger of breaching the unofficial threshold guideline on debt set by Beijing (Xie et al, 2023).
An analyst from the US Investment Advisory states that “Debt for the central government is a small issue, but for some local governments, it may take five years or more to resolve their debt issue (Toh, 2023).” According to William Lam, who is a senior fellow of the Jamestown Foundation, China’s total local government debt is close to 13.8 trillion USD (Toh, 2023). In the debts of local governments, there are two major kinds - one, agency debt that is the funds directly borrowed by state government institutions like schools and hospitals; two, the debts of the Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs). LGFVs are basically financial vehicles established by the local governments to obtain loans to complete projects. Since China began to regulate the banking sector to promote fiscal discipline, local governments turned to LGFVs for their loans.
Debt is not a liability for economic growth alone. The risk of a local-government led debt is multifaceted and essentially as follows: The total debt in China is a significant liquidity risk in the case of adverse events and shocks (IEF, 2014). One, the local governments may default and create a full-fledged financial crisis in China. However, according to economists this is a more remote possibility. The continuous impact of this debt is that cities will have to for a long period of time cut their spending and delay investments, which could pose a significant threat for economic growth (Xie et al, 2023). Government debt can have a significant impact on people on the ground. Laborers in technological companies, manual workers, teachers, and people on the lower end of the income ladder are bearing some brunt of the issue. Several of them report that they have been facing salary cuts, cuts to pension benefits, and pay hikes. Strained government finances have created a significant strain on government support to healthcare and protests have erupted in Wuhan, Dalian, and Guangzhou (NYT, 2023; Xie et al, 2023).
Thus, the problem of China’s debt creates ramifications across countries, industries, and different sections of society. It needs to be understood in depth and analyzed through various approaches.
Situating China in the Datasheet on the relationship between Taiwan & the Pacific Island States
By Sruthi Sadhasivam, Research Officer, C3S
A data sheet has been curated to track the relationship status of Taiwan with the Pacific Island states. One of the chief objectives is also to understand the extent to which China poses a threat to the national security of Pacific Island states and to what extent it constitutes a significant factor in determining the relations of Pacific Island states with Taiwan.
The nature of relationship between Taiwan and the Pacific island states have been depicted in detail (refer pgno.1, 2, 3 & 4). The nature of relations of Pacific Island states with Taiwan include trade relations, diplomatic relations or no official relations with Taiwan. Since 2019, about 3 Pacific Island States including Kiribati, Solomon Islands and Nauru have severed their relations with Taiwan and shifted their loyalty towards China.
China as a threat to Taiwan’s Allies in Oceania
At the moment of writing this piece, Taiwan has 3 diplomatic allies namely the Republic of Palau, the Republic of the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu. China has been wooing the remaining allies of Taiwan to sever their relations with the latter. In light of the same, the author has attempted to track the threats posed by China to these 3 Pacific Island states (refer pgno. 5-21) that have reaffirmed their relations with Taiwan post its 2024 elections.
The nature of the existential crisis of Palau and Marshall Islands is clearly illustrated in the letters drafted by the respective presidents of Palau and Marshall islands to the US (refer pgno. 15 & 18). The letters have a clear mention of China’s use of grayzone tactics against them, virtually pushing them in a situation of strategic helplessness with the US failing to extend security and developmental assistance to them.
From the datasheet it can be deduced that China has been threatening the security of the Pacific Island states by attacking their source of income (i.e) tourism and laying the foundations for submarine warfare by unilaterally sending its research vessels into the EEZ of Pacific Island states as witnessed in the case of Palau. Further, China has been attempting to impede the decisions regarding the conduct of foreign relations made by the Pacific Island States as seen in the case of Tuvalu (refer pg no. 20). Apart from encroaching on the maritime territory of the Pacific Island states, China has been conducting influence operations in states such as Palau to promote opinions favourable to Beijing. What has come to limelight is Beijing’s use of its overseas citizens to threaten the sovereignty of the Pacific Island states (refer pg no. 12 & 13). China has been bribing the politicians from the Pacific Island states to destabilize the region internally and make the environment conducive to promote China’s ideals. A case in point is China’s attempt to create a mini-state within a state in Marshall Islands by wooing the politicians belonging to the opposition parties of Marshall Islands (refer pg no. (16 & 18).
On a related note, the present allies of Taiwan- Palau, Tuvalu and Marshall Islands are indefatigable in their efforts to combat the security threats from China. Apart from intending to stay economically independent of China, these countries’ are resolute in securing their right to make independent foreign policy choices and in upholding their values of equality and democracy.
