What are the risks of a wider regional conflict as Gaza war rages on?

(TND) — As heavy fighting continues between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, Middle East tensions flared this week with an apparent Israeli strike in Lebanon that killed a top Hamas official and bombings in Iran that killed dozens.

Those events and others in recent days are adding fuel to the fire but won’t necessarily light the match for greater regional conflict, said a Middle East expert Thursday.

“It was a dangerous situation a week ago, it's a dangerous situation today, and it's going to be a dangerous situation a week from now,” said Gordon Gray, a former U.S. ambassador to Tunisia who is now teaching at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University.

For most folks, the concerns over “the very real possibility of a wider regional conflict” have to do with the risk of a two-front war.

That would mean confrontation between Israel and Iran, confrontation between Iran and the Gulf countries, or increased warfare between Israel and Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon.

For now, the intense fighting remains in Gaza.

Israel and Hezbollah – an Iran-backed terror group like Hamas – have been exchanging fire regularly over the Israeli-Lebanese border since the war in Gaza began in early October.

Fighting there has been lower intensity, as have Israeli military operations in the West Bank.

The Israeli military and Israeli settlers in the West Bank have attacked Palestinians, with the military going after suspected terrorists.

Gray said Hamas doesn’t have much of a presence in the West Bank, and the Israeli military operations there have targeted other groups or “lone wolf types.”

Saleh Arouri was Hamas’ top commander in the West Bank. Arouri was killed this week in a drone strike while in Beirut to meet with Hezbollah.

Israel is believed to be behind that attack, though it hasn’t claimed responsibility.

Gray said those two Iran-backed terror groups, Hamas and Hezbollah, are allies but have also had their differences.

And he said Hezbollah didn’t coordinate with Hamas in Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack against Israel that set off the current war in Gaza.

“It's important to bear in mind that Hamas and Hezbollah don't march in lockstep,” Gray said.

Still, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed revenge for the Hamas official’s killing.

Gray is skeptical Hezbollah will want to dramatically escalate its fighting with Israeli forces, wary of what a harsh Israeli response could mean for its support within an already shaky Lebanon.

Gray said Lebanon is “in dire straits,” struggling economically and saddled with a dysfunctional government.

But, he said, there’s always the concern that one side “miscalculates” its next move and unintentionally sparks more intense fighting.

And, with thousands of American troops stationed in the Gulf, the “potential is always there, unfortunately” for Americans to be drawn into conflict, even if it’s just counterstrikes against militant groups.

U.S. forces have been targeted by Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria. Gray said those attacks were happening before the Israel-Hamas war began, but the attacks have intensified since the war began.

Thursday, the U.S. carried out one such counterstrike, this time on an Iran-backed militia in central Baghdad.

The U.S. has also warned another Iran-supported group, the Houthis, against attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

Gray said the Houthis are “virulently anti-Israel, anti-Semitic and anti-U.S.”

Iran supports them, but they also act on their own, he said.

U.S. Navy warships have reportedly intercepted Houthi missiles headed toward Israel.

And Washington and others have warned the Houthis to stop the attacks or face retaliation.

Then, there’s the bombings in Iran this week that killed at least 84 people and wounded an additional 284.

They took place during a commemoration for an Iranian general killed in a 2020 U.S. drone strike.

The Islamic State group has claimed responsibility.

Gray said that’s a credible claim, as ISIS has undertaken operations before against Iran.

Iran's Shia and ISIS is strongly Sunni, he said.

“And they see the Shia as the enemy,” Gray said.

“So, I don't think that will light that fuse (of a wider regional conflict),” he added.