Bezos Numbers

	A	B	C	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L
1	Category	Trend (bold = suprising to me) (blue = new since last week)	Direction	5-Year Magnitude (decreasing written as 1/x for comparison)	Doubling Time	Plain Text + Context	Source	Confirmation Source	Possible Causes	Possible Effects

2	Social Issues	Cost of cybercrime	Increasing	7x	2 years	Monetary damage from cybercrime reported to IC3 (Internet Crime Complaint Center) was 10.3 billion in 2022, up from 1.4 billion in 2017	Statista
3		Top colleges' admissions rate	Decreasing	1.4x	10 years	Stanford admissions from 4.81% to 3.9% in last 5 years. Harvard from 5.9% to 4%.	Business Insider	Wikipedia
4		Not unfavorable views of the opposing political party	Decreasing	2x	5 years	Unfavorable views of the opposing party increased from 80% to 90%	The Economist
5		Global temperature	Increasing	1.03x	26 years	Rising consistently since 1950	Steph Tweet Thread	NASA		More floods
6		Number of coral bleaching events	Increasing	9x	1 year	Bleaching occurs when stressful conditions cause corals to expel their algal symbionts. It happened 54 times in 2016 (last year with data), up from 6 times in 2012.	Our World in Data
7		Drug overdose deaths	Increasing	3x	2 years	Doubled from 5 deaths per 100,000 to 10 between 2019 and 2021	CDC
8		School shootings	Increasing	3x	4 years	2022 had 153 school shootings, compared to average before 2016 was under ~30	Center for Homeland Defense and Security
9		Teenagers not having sex	Increasing	2x	9 years	Rose from 11% to 21% of teens that do not have sex in the past year	Steph Tweet Thread	Sexual Behavior Journal	More screen time
10		Youth mortality rate	Decreasing	1.05x	31 years	0.77% of U.S. kids die before age 15 in 2020, compared to 0.81% in 2016 and 1.4% in 1989	Our World in Data		Investment in neonatal research
11		Job satisfaction	Increasing	1.2x	NA	62% of workers are satisfied with their jobs, compared to 51% 5 years ago	WSJ		Low unemployment, higher rates of changing jobs
12	Demographics	Daily hours US adults spend on digital media	Increasing	1.3x	8 years	From 4.8 hours daily to 6.2 hours daily between 2013 and 2018	Our World in Data
13		Immigrant population	Increasing	1.05x	30 years	As of 2020 there are 50.63 million immigrants in the US	Our World in Data
14		Members of congress aged 60+	Increasing	1.1x	40 years	From 45% to 51% in last 5 years. In 1980, they made up 25% of congress	The Economist
15		People with no religious affiliation	Increasing	1.3x	25 years	29% of Americans are religiously unaffiliated	The Economist
16		Median age	Increasing	1.03x	NA	Increased from 36.7 to 37.7 since 2016	Our World in Data
17		Sex ratio of people aged 90+ (men:women)	Increasing	1.2x	28 years	In 2016 there were 53 men per 100 women among people aged 90+, now there are 63 men to women. In 1994, there were 34 men to women.	Our World in Data
18	People's Interests	Sports betting revenue	Increasing	NA	<1 year	Legalized in 2018, US sports betting now brings in $4.3 billion in revenue	Statista
19		Young people buying counterfeit products	Increasing	2x	3 years	"Last year, 37% of 15- to 24-year-olds surveyed by the EU Intellectual Property Office said they bought at least one fake product. That’s up more than double from 2019."	Snacks newsletter
20		Popularity of French bulldogs	Increasing	2x	5 years	They are now the #1 registered breed of America's Kennel Club (registry of purebreed dogs), overtaking Laborador Retriever	The Economist
21		Esports viewership	Increasing	2x	5 years	Esports, aka people watching other people play video games, doubled from 270 million viewers to almost 500 million viewers between 2016 and 2020.	Steph Tweet Thread	Syracuse		Less sports viewership	Note: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/20/technology/e-sports-revenue-video-gaming.html
22		Interest in ChatGPT	Increasing	NA	<1 year	Interest measured by Google trends' index	Google trends
23		Interest in Facebook marketplace	Increasing	10x	3 years	Interest measured by Google trends' index	Google trends
24	Energy	Big oil profits	Increasing	3x	1 year	Big oil (Exxon, Shell, Chevron, Total, BP, Equinor) profits totaled $220 billion last year, more than double what they made in 2021 and triple 5 years ago	Visual Capitalist	BBC
25		World production of lithium	Increasing	3x	3 years	About 35k tons to over 100k tons annually	DataIsBeautiful subreddit		Demand for electronics
26		Share of energy from renewables	Increasing	1.3x	13 years	10.6% of energy today comes from renewables	Our World in Data
27		Wind electricity costs	Decreasing	1.2x	NA	Cost per kw dropped from $1800 in 2017 to $1500 in 2021	Our World in Data
28		Profitability of wind turbine producers	Decreasing	1.2x	10 years	The top wind turbine producer, Goldwind, saw profit margin drop from 20% to 13% since 2008.	DOE report
29		Solar panel costs	Decreasing	1.2x	9 years	Residential photovoltaic system cost $6.71 per watt in 2011, and now costs $2.71 per watt.	Steph Tweet Thread	NREL		More use of renewables, less use of gas
30		Lithium battery costs	Decreasing	1.5x	4 years	Dropped from $271 to $181 between 2015 to 2018	Steph Tweet Thread	Our World in Data
31	Technology	Copper prices	Increasing	1.4x	15 years	$2.50 to $3.50 per pound in 5 years	Wikipedia
32		Cost of launching stuff into space	Decreasing	3x	2 years	The Falcon Heavy cost 1500 ish per kg and the Angora cost 5000 ish per kg	Steph Tweet Thread	Visual capitalist	More efficient fuel
33		Cost of sequencing genome	Decreasing	2.5x	5 years	Went from $1333 to $525 between 2017 and 2022 according to latest NIH data. However, the huge drop was from 2001 to 2010 when it went from $100 million to $100 thousand	Steph Tweet Thread	NIH
34		Number of transistors per microprocessor	Increasing	3x	2 years	39.5 billion to 58.2 billion transistors per microprocessor between 2019 and 2021 -- approximately following Moore's law of doubling every 2 years	Our World in Data
35		Annual number of objects launched into space	Increasing	4x	2 years	Last year the world launched 2163 objects into space. 1796 of those were from the US.	Our World in Data
36		Number of objects in space	Increasing	1.8x	5 years	There are 11.6k objects in space now, almost twice as much as in 2017.	Our World in Data
37		Computational capacity of fastest supercomputers	Increasing	10x	<1 year	GigaFLOPs per second from 93 million to 1.1 billion in last 5 years	Our World in Data
38		Cost of computer memory	Decreasing	1.3x	11 years	Cost per terabyte from $5100 to $2100 since 2011	Our World in Data
39		Landline phone subscriptions per person	Decreasing	1.3x	19 years	In 2004, there were 61 landlines per 100 people, now 31	Our World in Data
40		Mobile phone subscriptions per person	Decreasing	1.1x	NA	It was increasing for a long time, but actually decreasing in the last 5 years (maybe because people don't use separate work phones anymore?). There are now 106.2 mobile phones per 100 people.	Our World in Data
41		Quantum bits in a quantum processor	Increasing	10x	<1year	From 49 quantum bits per processor in 2017 to 433 now	Our World in Data
42	AI	Investment in AI	Increasing	8x	2 years	In 2021, annual global corporate investment in AI was $176 billion	Our World in Data
43		AI conference attendance	Increasing	4x	3 years	Total AI conference attendance (includes 16 major conferences, including virtual ones during Covid) was 88k in 2021	Our World in Data
44		S&P 500 earnings statements that mention "AI"	Increasing	NA	NA	47 S&P 500 earning statements in April 2023 mentioned AI	Equi Market Call May 2023
45		AWS revenue	Increasing	3x	4 years	AWS revenue was 83 billion in the last 12 months, up from 25 billion in 2018	Equi Market Call May 2023
46		Computation used to train top AI systems	Increasing	1000000x	NA	GPT (2018) used 17000 petaFLOP, GPT-4 used 21 billion petaFLOP (2023)	Our World in Data		computation costs
47		Image classification accuracy	Increasing	1.1x	NA	Coatnet-7 had 91% top-1 accuracy in 2021. Resnext-101 had 82% top-1 accuracy in 2016. Top-1 accuracy measures how often a system's single most probable label (out of 1000 possible labels) matches the target label.	Our World in Data
48		Protein folding accuracy	Increasing	3x	4 years	Median accuracy for the best team in the CASP competition rose from 30 to 87 (scores range from 0-100) between 2014 and 2020	Our World in Data
49	Economics	Global central banks purchasing gold	Increasing	3x	1 year	Central banks bought a record 1136 tons of gold in 2022. Russia has bought the most gold over the past 20 years.	Visual Capitalist
50		US exchange market cap as percent of global exchange market cap	Increasing	1.1x	NA	NYSE and NASDAQ comprise 42% of global equities ($39 trillion), compared to 30% in 2010	Visual Capitalist
51		Price of gold	Increasing	1.5x	13 years	Currently at $1977/oz, up from $1300/oz in 2018
52		Price of bitcoin	Increasing	3.5x	3 years	Price of bitcoin is volatile, but overall has gone up. $64k at peak, $27k now, $7.6k in 2018
53		Price of ethereum	Increasing	3x	3 years	Also volatile. $4600 at peak, $1800 now, $600 in 2018
54		Total US reserve assets	Increasing	2x	5 years	Currently at $8.45 trillion,	FRED
55		US debt ceiling	Increasing	1.6x	10 years	Both administrations keep raising the debt ceiling. It's currently at $31.4 trillion, up from $16.3 trillion in 2012.
56		Options trading	Increasing	2.5x	2 years	Options contracts traded per day is now above 8 million, up from around 3 million in 2018	The Economist		Wealth inequality -- people wanting to get rich quick
57		Number of crypto users	Increasing	30x	1 year	~10 million to ~300 million total crypto users in last 5 years. 3x in 2021.	Steph Tweet Thread	Crypto.com report	Mistrust of banks	Rising value of crypto
58		Money supply growth (largest decceleration in history)	Increasing/ Decreasing	1.5x	10 years	Although the M2 money supply rose from 13.9 billion to 20.8 billion over the past 5 years, the last 9 months have seen the largest decceleration of money supply in history, a ~1 billion (4%) drop.	Equi Market Call May 2023	FRED	Fed interest rate
59		US bond CDS value (currently at max in history)	Increasing	17x	2 months	CDS is a financial derivative that offsets risk of the bond -- in this case, insurance against US gov default. Rose from $16 to $149 since Jan 1 this year.	Equi Blog	Investing.com
60		Child care cost as a % of average wage	Decreasing	1.5x	NA	35% of average wage to 23% of average wage.	The Economist
61	Healthcare	Astorvatatin (aka Lipitor) perscriptions	Increasing	1.7x	5 years	This drug is used to lower cholesterol. Rose from 65 million to 112 milllion perscriptions in the US between 2013-2018.	Wikimedia
62		Cost of insulin	Increasing	1.8x	5 years	Increased from an average of about $0.15/ml to $0.27/ml	American Action Forum	GoodRx
63		Healthcare spending per capita	Increasing	1.2x	17 years	Healthcare spending per capita increased from $10,000 to above $12,000 in only 5 years.	My previous report (NHE stats)
64		Total spending on hospital care	Increasing	1.3x	12 years	Total spending on hospital care increased from $1 trillion to 1.3 trillion in last 5 years.	My previous report (NHE stats)
65		Total spending on professional health services	Increasing	1.3x	12 years	Total spending on professional health services increased from $1 trillion to 1.3 trillion in last 5 years.	My previous report (NHE stats)
66		Cost of knee replacement	Increasing	1.2x	13+ years	Rose from $28k to 35k from 2011 to 2016 -- a 17% increase, and inflation was only 8% during that period.	Health System Tracker
67		Cost of hospital stay for patients with private insurance	Increasing	1.2x	20+ years	Rose from $17k to 20k from 2010 to 2015. The increase is most significant for patients with private insurance.	Health System Tracker
68		Cost of outpatient visit	Increasing	1.15x	13+ years	Rose from	Health System Tracker
69		Cost of laproscopic appendectomy	Increasing	1.4x	9 years	Rose from $14.5k to 20k from 2011 to 2016	Health System Tracker
70	Venture Capital	Capital demand-to-supply ratio for late-stage companies	Increasing	3.2x	1 year	This basically means that a lot more late-stage companies want to be invested in than there are VCs available now.	Pitchbook
71		Median seed pre-money valuations	Increasing	2.2x	5 years	From $6 million to $13 million in last 5 years	Pitchbook
72		Value of total VC investments	Increasing	2.7x	5 years	From $90 billion to $241 billion between 2017-2022 (Note: It has dropped off since 2021)	Statista
73		Dual-class voting structures	Increasing	1.1x	8 years	50% of tech IPOs in 2022 had dual-class voting structure, below 20% did before 2014. In a dual-class share structure, one class is offered to the public and another is reserved for founders and executives. Many argue that this weakens accountability, as executives can simply overrule the wishes of outside investors.	Visual Capitalist
74	Food	Global aquaculture production	Increasing	1.4x	20 years	Farming of seafood has more than doubled in the past 20 years from 50 million tons to over 100 million tons annually	Our World in Data
75		Food prices	Increasing	1.6x	17 years	Global food price index (according to United Nations) rose from 95 to 155 in last 5 years	Wikipedia
76		Fertilizer prices	Increasing	2x	5 years	The price of DAP (one of the most common fertilizers) rose from $360/ton to $800/ton in the last 5 years	Wikipedia
77		Soybean prices	Increasing	1.4x	17 years	$10 to $14 per bushel in 5 years	Wikipedia
78		Wheat prices	Increasing	2x	5 years	$4 to $9 per bushel in 5 years	Wikipedia
79		Corn prices	Increasing	2x	5 years	$3.50 to $7 per bushel in 5 years	Wikipedia
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