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Growing tensions in Middle East heighten global oil security risks
Mounting tensions in the Middle East spiked further over the weekend with Iranian air attacks on Israeli military facilities, raising the risk of increased volatility in oil markets and providing a fresh reminder of the importance of oil security.
 
Global oil markets were already tight before the weekend’s events, with the deepening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East focusing attention on security of supply, according to the latest edition of our monthly Oil Market Report. We at the IEA, as always, are tracking the developments closely.
 
The Brent international oil price benchmark breached the threshold of $90 a barrel earlier this month, reaching its highest level since October 2023 amid the heightened tensions between Israel and Iran.
 
The sustained output curbs by OPEC+ mean that non-OPEC+ producers, led by the Americas, are expected to continue driving world oil supply growth through 2025. Additional volumes from the United States, Brazil, Guyana and Canada alone could come close to meeting world oil demand growth for this year and next.
 
At the same time, global oil demand growth is currently in the midst of a slowdown. According to our latest forecasts, it’s expected to ease to 1.2 million barrels a day this year and 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025 – bringing a peak in consumption by the end of this decade into view, according to a new commentary we published Friday alongside the Oil Market Report.
 
With the strong recovery in demand following the disruptions of the Covid-19 pandemic having largely run its course, structural factors are set to lead to a gradual easing of oil demand growth over the rest of this decade. These include continued market share gains by EVs, steady improvements in the fuel economy of vehicles, and efforts in the Middle East to reduce the use of oil for power generation.
 
Read the commentary on the factors affecting oil demand – and the highlights and overview from our April Oil Market Report, which features our initial forecasts for 2025.
Learning the lessons of Europe’s past energy mistakes as it looks to its industrial future
The European Union is facing an important week, with government leaders set to discuss at a summit in Brussels how to ensure the region’s economy and industries remain globally competitive following the turmoil caused by the recent energy crisis.

In an interview with the Financial Times published Sunday, our Executive Director Fatih Birol urged European countries to draw on lessons learned from past mistakes, including the region’s decades-long overreliance on Russian natural gas that meant it experienced some of the heaviest economic impacts from the recent energy crisis.

At the same time, Europe’s strong response to the recent crisis has successfully loosened the grip that Russia had over its energy sector, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Dr Birol wrote in a joint opinion article published Friday by Table Media.

Two years ago, one in five units of energy consumed in the European Union came from Russian fossil fuels. Today, it is one in twenty. With the cuts in Russian pipeline deliveries of gas, they note, LNG supplies have now become much more important for energy costs and energy security in the EU, even as it builds up a new clean energy economy.

And despite the world being set to move from a period of gas shortfalls to one where we could soon see an abundance – as a large wave of new export projects comes online in the next few years – Europe and other major economies can’t ignore their responsibility to reach net zero emissions as soon as possible, and to help other countries do the same.

Read their joint opinion article in full.    
To keep up with our very latest news and analysis, follow the IEA on social media (LinkedIn, Twitter) as well as our Executive Director Fatih Birol (LinkedIn, Twitter)
African ambassadors gather at IEA ahead of major Summit on Clean Cooking
Ambassadors from countries across Africa and beyond gathered at our headquarters in Paris last week to emphasise their commitment to expanding clean cooking access, with momentum building towards the major Summit on Clean Cooking in Africa that we and our partners are convening next month.

At the meeting of ambassadors last week, high-level representatives from more than 20 African countries, representing 80% of the continent’s population, underscored the importance of turning 2024 into a crucial year for action on clean cooking.

The meeting – which included officials from 27 countries in all, with 14 ambassadors attending – took place ahead of the Summit on 14 May at UNESCO headquarters in Paris. The Summit will be co-chaired by President Samia Suluhu Hassan of Tanzania, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre of Norway, our Executive Director Fatih Birol and African Development Bank Group President Akinwumi Adesina. (You can read the announcement of President Adesina becoming a co-chair here.)

The Summit aims to serve as a powerful catalyst for change by providing a global forum for fresh financing commitments, sharing effective policies and developing new partnerships. A lack of access to clean cooking affects more than 2 billion people around the world. In Africa, four in five people cook over open fires or on basic stoves, with severe impacts on health, gender equality and the environment. In Africa, it is the second leading cause of premature deaths among women and children.

Read more in our news article and our special report from last year, A Vision for Clean Cooking Access for All. You can also watch a recent video on the issues at stake here.
Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister visits IEA ahead of opening of new Regional Centre
Our Executive Director welcomed Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance Lawrence Wong at our headquarters last week for an extensive and wide-ranging conversation on key energy and climate issues in Singapore and the broader Southeast Asia region.

Dr Birol and Deputy Prime Minister Wong discussed energy markets as well as opportunities tied to accelerating clean energy transitions. They also spoke about the establishment of the IEA Regional Cooperation Centre in Singapore.

The Centre will work with all countries in Southeast Asia and beyond to enhance energy security and accelerate clean energy transitions. It will be the IEA’s first office outside of our Paris headquarters.
IEA to hold first Global Summit on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions
Next week, we're hosting the first ever Global Summit on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions at our headquarters in Paris.

The event on 26 April – chaired by Dr Birol, with high-level speakers including Brazil’s Minister of Mines and Energy Alexandre Silveira and Mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo – will enable exchanges between policy makers, labour and business leaders, indigenous voices, civil society and youth representatives to foster global collaboration and collectively address the challenges of implementing and tracking people-centred clean energy transitions.

The Summit will highlight that putting people at the centre of clean energy transitions requires engaging citizens as active participants and designing policies to ensure fair distribution of benefits and costs. And it will dive into the sharp focus needed on jobs and skills to protect workers and communities and to maximise new opportunities in the clean energy sector.

The aim of the discussions is to build a collective understanding of what adopting a people-centred approach means – in line with G7 and G20 priorities and ahead of COP29 and COP30.

View the Summit agenda here – and follow the discussions live our website or via our YouTube, LinkedIn and X accounts.
More efficient and flexible buildings are key to clean energy transitions
As more and more buildings are built, making their energy use more efficient and flexible is crucial to the security and sustainability of the world’s energy system, according to our new commentary.

People spend the vast majority of their time in buildings, from houses to offices, stores and schools. And while these buildings serve different purposes, they all have at least one thing in common: to keep the lights on, run heating and cooling systems, and use appliances and equipment, they require substantial amounts of energy. Buildings today account for about 30% of final energy consumption globally and more than half of final electricity demand.

The sector is growing rapidly, especially in developing economies. As more households get access to electricity and incomes rise, more people are buying appliances such as air conditioners – and as temperatures rise, they’re running them more often.

However, with a greater focus on well-tested energy efficiency policies, energy consumption from buildings could be significantly reduced, all while maintaining – or even improving – the quality of energy services delivered. This would not only lower the building sector’s emissions, but also save money for energy consumers.

Taking advantage of technologies that allow buildings to use energy more flexibly throughout the day could unlock even greater benefits. When buildings and grids can communicate with each other, strains during peak times can be reduced and peaks in energy demand can be smoothed out.

Read our commentary for more details on the opportunities – and challenges – of creating buildings that use energy more effectively.
In other news…
Dr Birol recently travelled to Copenhagen for high-level meetings with government and business leaders. He was a guest of the Danish Inter-Parliamentary group, where he spoke about drivers of the clean energy transition, energy issues and European competitiveness, and delivered a keynote speech before more than 150 investors on the fast-growing clean energy economy at the Annual Meeting of Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners.

He also visited Brussels, where he took part in a meeting on achieving energy and climate objectives at the European Parliament and sat down with leading figures including European Commission Executive Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič and Danish Minister for Development Cooperation and Global Climate Policy Dan Jørgensen to discuss Europe's effective response to the energy crisis and its leadership role ahead of COP29.

Dr Birol also recently held a virtual meeting with Colombian Minister of Mines and Energy Andrés Camacho to discuss secure energy transitions. Last year, we published our first review of Colombia’s energy policies, which examined the country’s achievements in developing its energy sector as well as the challenges it faces in ensuring a sustainable energy future. You can read it here.

We recently hosted an energy efficiency training week in Nairobi, Kenya, which gathered almost 200 policy makers and energy professionals from across the continent. Our new video shows some of the highlights, while a second video explores the benefits of improving energy efficiency in Africa for energy security and clean energy transitions, featuring key insights from policy makers at the training event.

We recently published a report on natural gas in Korea that looked at the security of the country’s supply and provided high-level recommendations in light of the global energy crisis that began in 2022. Read the full report, developed in partnership with the Korea Energy Economics Institute.
ENERGY SNAPSHOT
Since the pandemic, job growth in clean energy has outpaced fossil fuels
Clean technologies are powering job growth in the global energy sector. Our World Energy Employment 2023 report found that clean energy employment now makes up over half of all energy jobs, after overtaking fossil fuels in 2021. Increasing demand for workers in clean energy is expected to continue, with the growth in new jobs outweighing declines in fossil fuel roles in all our scenarios.

Maximising the number of quality jobs linked to the new energy economy will be a key focus of our upcoming Global Summit on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions. Given that new energy jobs may not always be in the same location, or require the same skills, discussions at the Summit will focus on policies that can support job training and capacity building to ensure that energy transitions benefit as many people as possible.
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