Overview: China's Space Programme and Analysis on India's Space Programme
by Annunthra Rangan & Sapna Elsa Abraham
China:
China began its venture into space only in the 1950's. China took its first official step into space by launching and recovering an experimental biological rocket carrying white mice, since then China’s space programme has grown in accordance with the growing international presence and viewing space exploration as a vital component for national strategy.
During the 20th Party congress session in 2022, President Xi Jinping highlighted China's advancements in space, emphasizing achievements in human spaceflight, lunar and Martian exploration, deep-sea and deep-Earth probes, supercomputers, satellite navigation, quantum information, nuclear power technology, new energy technology, airliner manufacturing, and biomedicine. This marked China's entry into the league of global innovators. The 2021 white paper reiterated that space exploration and achievements are integral to the national strategy, setting the stage for China's civil-military space program priorities in 2023. These priorities included developing a heavy lift reusable rocket, diverse space platforms in various orbits, and the capability to build and expand large platforms in space. Although China publicly denounces the weaponization of space, its policymakers acknowledge the critical role of space in national defense and security. In 2015, Xi directed the PLA to establish a specialized space service, innovate doctrinal strategies and training methods that leverage space as a force multiplier, and integrate China's civilian and commercial space efforts into its broader national strategy for excellence. China's comprehensive space policies have evolved across multiple sectors over the decades, resulting in substantial documentation and progress.
In 2023, China achieved significant milestones in space exploration. The nation celebrated the successful return of its Shenzhou-15 crew, dispatched two manned spaceships, and launched the Tianzhou-6 cargo spacecraft to resupply the Tiangong space station with essential supplies and spacesuits for the Shenzhou-15 crew, while also conducting valuable scientific research in space.
The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) is gearing up for a record-setting 100 orbital launches in 2024. The first half of the year is set to witness the launch of the Queqiao-2 lunar relay satellite and the Chang’e-6 mission, marking the first-ever lunar far side sample return mission.
Other notable missions on the horizon include an ocean salinity detection satellite, the Sino-Franco Space-based multi-band astronomical Variable Objects Monitor (SVOM), the Einstein Probe, the China Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite-2 in collaboration with Europe, and the retrievable Shijian-19 space science satellite. Additionally, the Long March 6C and Long March 12 rockets will make their debut flights.
Scheduled for an early 2024 launch, the Tianzhou-7 cargo craft will deliver supplies to the astronauts aboard the Tiangong space station. The Long March 12, developed by CASC's Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology (SAST) and previously known as the "XLV," will take off from the new commercial spaceport at Wenchang.
India:
India's space program has commanded widespread attention following its successful Chandrayaan 3 lunar landing on the Southern hemisphere of the Moon on August 23, 2023. The achievement of establishing a comprehensive space logistics capability within a modest budget of $75 million covering rocket launch, propulsion system, lunar lander, and rover has captured the imagination of the global community, particularly aspiring spacefaring nations seeking to develop their own programs in a sustainable manner.
In 2023, India unveiled its official space policy, delineating a strategic shift towards nurturing its burgeoning commercial space sector. Under this policy framework, the Department of Space, operating within the Prime Minister’s Office, assumes the pivotal role of formulating and executing space-related policies. Meanwhile, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) will concentrate on advancing research and development initiatives.
In addressing national security imperatives within the space domain, India took decisive steps. In 2019, the Defense Space Agency was established, akin to a dedicated space force, alongside the inception of the Defense Space Research Organization. Presently, the Indian Air Force (IAF) has proposed a rebranding initiative, aspiring to be known as the Air and Space Forces. This transformation aims to not only enhance capabilities in space-based precision, navigation, and intelligence but also encompasses the development of space traffic management, situational awareness, and weather prediction capabilities. Collaboration frameworks are being sought with entities including ISRO, the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO), IN-SPACe, and India’s private space sector to realize these objectives.
In April 2023, ISRO conducted a successful test of the Reusable Launch Vehicle Autonomous Landing Mission (RLV LEX), marking a significant advancement in India's space capabilities. This endeavor can be likened to an Indian iteration of a space plane. ISRO's ambition is to integrate this reusable technology into its existing fleet of rocket launchers, aligning with India's target of achieving reusable launches by 2025. Concurrently, India is actively engaged in the development of the Reusable Launch Vehicle Technology Demonstrator (RLV-TD) to further enhance its capabilities in this area.
India is currently in the process of developing a human-rated launch vehicle for its Gaganyaan mission, aimed at enabling human spaceflight. This endeavor involves enhancing capabilities in areas such as life support systems, bioastronautics, crew training, and human rating and certification. According to ISRO's Somanath, announced on December 13, 2023, India is committed to developing its own Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS).
Furthermore, India has unveiled plans for a second Mars Mission slated for 2030, focusing on the study of the Martian atmosphere. This upcoming mission will carry instruments including a Mars Orbit Dust Experiment (MODEX), a Radio Occultation (RO) Experiment, an Energetic Ion Spectrometer (EIS), and a Langmuir Probe and Electric Field Experiment (LPEX).
In addition, India has set its sights on exploring Venus with the Sukhrayaan 1 mission scheduled for 2031. Recently unveiled a comprehensive space roadmap, outlining several ambitious missions. Among these, the Chandrayaan 4 mission is slated for 2024, followed by the establishment of a space station by 2028 and a manned mission to the Moon by 2040. India's proposed space station will orbit at an altitude ranging from 120 to 140 kilometres in Low Earth Orbit.
Stay tuned for next editions of China Watch for detailed analysis on China's Space Programme !!
C3S Exclusive
Parliamentary Session in China 2024
By R Madhumitha, Research Officer, C3S
Introduction
On Monday, 10th March, China’s weeklong parliamentary session came to an end. The event convened the National People’s Conference (NPC) and the 14th Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). The National People’s Congress - China’s Parliament is, on paper, the highest organ of state power in the People’s Republic of China. The Parliamentary Session consists of two sessions, and hosts 2,960 parliamentarians from across China. 2,200 political advisors are also in attendance. During the two sessions, the Chinese Premier presented the Annual Government Work report which discusses the economic and social development plan of the government. The delegates are tasked with discussing new laws, and discussing complaints from various departments of the government.
Although there is a discussion of the legislation, this annual gathering is typically mainly ceremonial; there will be no major changes since the voting is controlled and pre-approved by the Communist Party on the “rubber-stamp” parliament. However the session provides a glimpse of how government policy will take shape over the year. It provides insights about the priorities of top leadership in China. Since 1993, it has been customary for the Premier to host a press conference at the end of the session, which presented a rare opportunity for journalists to interact with high-level members of Congress. However, Li Qiang did not address journalists this year for the first time in three decades. On Friday, China’s legislators from the NPC submitted 298 proposals to the legislative session. These suggestions pertain to sustaining economic growth by nurturing investments and strategic industries. Key takeaways from the Parliamentary Session of 2024 are touched on in subsequent sections.
Key Takeaways
The economy, struggling under low consumer activity and a struggling property sector has been one of the most awaited sessions in the parliament. Several ministers were quite honest about the economic challenges that China is facing currently. Unsurprisingly, the housing crisis cast a large shadow on the discussions. It appears that China is trying to turn a page on the real estate problem without proposing a real solution to it. The housing minister stated that fixing the housing market would be a real challenge for China. The minister also said that “the property developers that must go bankrupt will go bankrupt”, in reference to the recent defaults of Evergrande and Country Garden. Debt-related engagement was also witnessed at the session - some local government officials were seen in discussions with bankers during the sidelines of the annual event. Deflation was identified as a critical issue at the event; a key obstacle in achieving the targeted 5% annual growth rate of the economy. To combat deflationary pressures, China needs to put more money in the hands of the people, without triggering debt. Recently, there was a minimal increase in rural pension. However, this seems like a weak intervention at a critical time.
Overall, the top priority for China’s economic recovery is industrial support, which figured in three major plans released by the parliamentary meetings. Officials also seem to believe that China’s economic recovery would be driven by “future industries”. That is, advanced technology that ranges from Artificial Intelligence (AI), electric vehicles, commercial space flights; the leadership hopes that this will be the way that China will finally recover economically. As of now, growth, self-sufficiency, and parity with the United States are China’s priorities with technological development. This has a significant impact on their regulatory approach, and the Chinese government plans to be lenient with the regulation of these technologies to reap the full growth benefits. Lenient regulation has some disturbing implications, particularly in the context of China’s goal of developing the surveillance tech market. Additionally, Xi called for increased research in applied sciences and scientific breakthroughs in core technical beliefs. Although the economy was a much-awaited point of discussion in this year’s NPC, the discussions around the economy highlighted nothing new. 5% growth rate targets were retained from last year, and the economic woes continue to dampen prospects. Overall, this discussion was old wine in new bottles.
Under Xi Jinping, Defence and National Security have emerged as top priorities of the government, and reflected in the Parliamentary meet as well. Equal to the 2023 numbers, the Parliament announced an increase in defense spending by 7.2%. Although some experts claim that this target will not be met in real terms, China’s defense commitments are drawing attention. The question of Taiwan also figured prominently in the national security discourse, and officials remained firm on the unification of Taiwan with China. China’s military spending has doubled since 2015, and other countries like the US and Japan have been raising their budgets in response to this perceived threat. Although social development is to be an important part of policy making, this aspect was overshadowed by the defense and economic sectors. However, the government work report detailed some energy related goals for 2024 - China aims to lower energy consumption per unit of GDP by 2.5% in 2024. China’s 2021 targets ultimately ended with power outages, so this aim is significant after two years. Some of these futuristic technologies contribute to achieving other policy priorities like curbing climate change - the government could subsidize electric vehicles to meet its climate targets on time and improve the domestic EV manufacturing environment. However, the parliament did not announce any particular budgets for energy transition.
Discussion
Overall, this year’s parliamentary annual meet was not significantly different from previous years in terms of introducing radical policies for social, economic, or defense sectors. However, it introduced the goals and priorities of China in each of these sectors, and the world can expect that there will be sectoral convergence in the development of futuristic technologies. This year however, there was significant consolidation of power by Xi. At the closing session of the meeting, the chairman of the NPC stated that the country must adhere to the Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics. The repetitive mention of Xi’s name, the cancellation of the press conference, and recent events in China suggest that the CCP may be attempting to downgrade the role of the NPC to a policy implementation body. This would dilute the decision-making powers of the state council, a big step to consolidate Xi’s power.
How this will play out in terms of investor confidence, economic recovery, and society in China, only time will tell.
China's State Secrets Laws: Tightening Control and Silencing Dissent in China and Hong Kong
By Annunthra Rangan, Research Officer, C3S
The definition of "state secrets" in China is broad, covering topics that would typically be subject to public debate in other nations. The law defines state secrets as matters affecting the security and interests of the state, spanning from traditional national security issues to seemingly trivial subjects such as national statistics on death sentences. This expansive definition effectively prohibits public reporting or discussion of any political issue deemed unsuitable by CCP authorities. It is necessary that all state organs, armed forces, political parties, enterprises, and citizens have a legal obligation to protect state secrets...
