Sahil Shah’s Post

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Private Wealth | Strategy & Research

Since January 2023, the Nifty SMLCAP 250 Index and the NIFTY MID SELECT Index have experienced significant increases of approximately 60% and 50% respectively. The MSCI India Small Cap Index, which in 2010 traded at a discount of 41% and 14% to the MSCI US Small Index and MSCI China Small Cap Index, now commands a premium of 33% and 129% over the respective indices. This substantial shift in valuations has occurred alongside the anticipation of rate cuts in the coming year. The evolving valuations of these indices raise the question of whether there will be an earnings catch-up to justify these heightened valuations or if a price/time correction is imminent. The anticipated rate cuts add a layer of uncertainty to this, making it an intriguing development to monitor. This situation presents an interesting confluence of market dynamics, monetary policy expectations, the world-wide elections and earnings performance, making it a compelling area to observe for investors and analysts alike.

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Bhumin Shah

Investment Banking | Venture Capital Advisory | Financial Modelling

3mo

Insteresting point. However, along with all these factors we should not forget the India growth story and the stability that the current government is bringing to India on a global scale as well. It is widely considered that the same government will come into power once again and with that the industries and policies that they were bullish on is going to stay for another five years. Penetration into the untapped markets in India has a lot of scope as well so there is an increase growth rate that is being projected for the small and mid caps. However, I do agree that if there are abnormal negative surprises then there is going to be a steep correction in the markets. If not, then this might actually look like a fair market in the coming years and some companies may still be underpriced.

Gaurav mundhra

🚀 Passionate Personal Finance Professional | Avid longterm Investor | Speaker | 🔍About Me: Dedicated to helping individuals achieve financial success and security. Currently catering more than 700+ Happy CLIENTS.

3mo

Rightly pointed , intresting to watch whether the EPS catches up or there is price or time correction. One thing is clear that this can't stay forever, something has to catch up. PS- time correction is more dangerous of them all. Sahil Shah

Shubham Ishwad

Executive Student at Company Secretary of India. LLB . Bcom. GDC&A

3mo

👍

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